In Central Asia, water has been more a source of tension than cooperation. While there have been joint efforts to save the Aral Sea, as well as a flood of internationally introduced technical projects, states in the region have spent most of the past two decades squabbling over the use of water. The region is muddling on with outdated allocation quotas from Soviet times, and the creation of new infrastructure projects like the Rogun Dam in Tajikistan has led to diplomatic saber rattling.

During the Soviet period, central planning created a “cotton belt” in the lowlands of what is now Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, irrigated through a complex system of dams, pumps, and channels using water coming from mountains in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, the break up of the Soviet Union left the emerging republics of Central Asia without a regional water management strategy.

The inclusion of Afghanistan in transboundary water agreements (as recently discussed at a seminar organized by the OSCE) is long overdue, yet is not making the situation easier. Nonetheless, initiatives like the launch of the international year of water cooperation 2013 in Paris on February 11 can give badly needed attention to the problem. Can water help unite the countries of Central Asia, or will it increase tensions between them?

Key Conclusions

• Water is in fact not so scarce as commonly perceived, and much can be done from the demand side, i.e., by improving unsustainable irrigation practices.
• Attempts to reach an integrated solution to Central Asia’s water problems are doomed if there is no political will.
• Afghanistan borders the region’s largest river, and, with rising demand for water, it must be part of the solution.
• Central Asia is still a long way from an open “water clash,” but the course is being set and the ship needs to be turned in time.

Analysis

Most of Central Asia is embedded in the Aral Sea basin, stretching from what is left of the Aral Sea in the west to the melting glacial “water towers” in the east. The two main rivers of the region, which flow from east to west, are the Syr Darya to the north and the Amu Darya to the south. The former runs from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through Uzbekistan to the northern Aral Sea in Kazakhstan; the latter flows from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan, along the latter’s border with Afghanistan, through Turkmenistan and finally into the southern Aral Sea in Uzbekistan. These two rivers provide the main source for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower in the region.

A major legacy of the Soviet era in Central Asia was the creation of an electricity-water nexus, whereby the generation of electricity from hydropower in upstream countries was linked to the water needs of those downstream. This system operated in the context of a common management system and shared energy arrangements through regional energy grids and networks. However, this system ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the overnight emergence of international borders. Water was increasingly seen as a national asset rather than a common resource, and the transition to commercial prices for the supply of hydrocarbons to upstream countries (formerly delivered freely as compensation for irrigation water) presented major difficulties for their economies.

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• December 12: Meeting of the Friends of Syria, Morocco
  The “Friends of Syria” core group includes the US and like-minded European and Middle Eastern partners–such as France, Germany, the UK–as well as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. At the 4th meeting in Marrakesh, assuming it goes ahead, participants might be able to induce as many as 100 countries, including the US, to recognize the new coalition of Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The coalition would then set up an interim government largely made up of technocrats, as well as a military council and a judicial authority. Should the regime collapse, the interim government would become a transitional one, which would in turn be dissolved once elections could be arranged.
• December 12: Southeastern Asian Countries Hold Maritime Talks, Manila, Philippines
  The deputy foreign ministers of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are to meet in Manila as part of Philippine efforts at pushing for a multilateral solution to their rival claims to South China Sea territories. The talks exclude China, which has warned that the move will further complicate the regional situation.
• December 13: Iran and IAEA in New Round of Talks, Tehran, Iran
  Representatives from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iranian officials have scheduled a meeting in Tehran on December 13th to discuss the ongoing issues regarding the country’s nuclear program. The last round of talks took place in Vienna on August 24th. The latest IAEA report stated that Iran had installed all of the nearly 2,800 centrifuges it will use to enrich uranium at the Fordow plant while also increasing its stockpile of both 5% and 20% enriched uranium.  
• December 15-17: The Fukushima Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  Following the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations in March 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been leading a process of learning, and acting upon lessons from the accident in order to strengthen nuclear safety. The upcoming Ministerial Conference is part of the Action Plan to provide an opportunity for learning further lessons and for enhancing transparency. The working sessions are envisaged to cover the following major topics: lessons learned from the accident at Fukushima; strengthening nuclear safety, including emergency preparedness and response; and protection of people and the environment from ionizing radiation.

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• November 5: FARC and Colombia resume peace talks, Havana, Cuba
  The government of Colombia resumes peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The negotiations between the two sides started in October in Oslo, Norway, ten years after the last attempt of solving the conflict peacefully failed. During the talks in Oslo, the FARC called for an immediate ceasefire, which the Colombian government rejected, saying that a ceasefire at this stage would enable the rebels to rearm. The meeting in Havana is expected to focus on five key issues, including the end of armed conflict, land reform, drug trafficking, guarantees for the rights of political opposition, and of the victims of the conflict. 
• November 15/29: UN likely to discuss upgrade of Palestinian status
  The UN General Assembly will discuss the upgrade of the Palestinian status at the world body to “nonmember” observer state. Given the number of member states sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, the General Assembly is expected to approve the application.
• November 18-20: 21st ASEAN Summit, Phnom Penh Cambodia
  Leaders of the member states of the Southeast Asian group of states will gather in Phnom Penh to discuss (primarily) the ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea and a code of conduct aimed at resolving the issue.
  
  The last meeting, also under Cambodian chairmanship, failed to reach an outcome agreement for the first time in the history of ASEAN. While agreement on the code of conduct might not be reached at the summit, there is hope that the negotiating atmosphere will be more open and that an outcome document can be adopted.
  

The inaugural issue of Stability, a new academic journal on international security and development, has launched, and its aim is to draw attention to new and emerging forms of instability and innovative responses. It also aims to tackle some of the major failures of contemporary academic publishing, including low real-world impact, unnecessary barriers to access, narrow marketing and distribution and, lastly, painfully slow publishing procedures that delay the dissemination of good ideas.

The journal challenges the tendency to view conflict, crime, and other forms of violence through separate lenses. Indeed, these artificial distinctions have in some cases masked the interconnections between contexts. The fact is that many ostensibly “post-conflict” and even "peaceful" settings register levels of insecurity that are on par with today's war zones. These conceptual boundaries have unnecessarily constrained learning and cross-fertilization among scholars, policy makers, and practitioners.

The case of Mali highlights how multiple forms of insecurity are converging and forcing us to rethink how best to engage. There, al Qaeda-linked rebels in the north are financed in part by the transit of Latin American narcotics, mostly cocaine, into western Europe. Malian rebels are using drug wealth to recruit fighters, win local support with free services and delay an anticipated mission from the Economic Cooperation Organisation of West African States (ECOWAS). In Mali, we see European drug demand and Latin American narco-traffickers fueling an Islamist rebel movement, which is partly backed by Middle Eastern financiers and bolstered by Libyan and Sudanese fighters hardened through a succession of wars. International organizations, along with West African forces, are attempting to resolve the situation with mediation by Algeria.

The journal is endorsing a new approach to academic publishing. Part of its mission is to bring research to intended audiences in a faster and more accessible format. It hopes to chart a new path that is now referred to as “gold open access.” This means that articles are published online as soon as they are available (rather than waiting for the next opening in a future issue). Readers do not pay anything to access articles. And contributions are encouraged not only from professional researchers and academics but also from experienced policymakers and practitioners; authors from developing and violence-affected countries are pro-actively encouraged to contribute. Articles are then actively “marketed” to relevant policymakers and practitioners, both by the journal itself and by providing authors with information to guide them in disseminating their content.

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• October 1: FOSS Conference on Small States, New York
  Representatives of more than 100 small states will gather in New York for the Forum on Small States (FOSS) Conference. This year marks the twentieth anniversary of the forum, which was established by the government of Singapore to provide small states with a platform to discuss issues of common concern in the context of the United Nations.
  
  This year’s gathering on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will feature a distinguished list of speakers including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, newly-elected President of the General Assembly Vuk Jeremic, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore K Shanmugam, and several others. A keynote address will be delivered by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The conference will address the contribution and the role of small states in three core areas: international relations, mediation, and development.
• October 15 (postponed from October 5): FARC Peace Talks, Oslo, Norway
  The FARC guerillas (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), the rebel group which has fought successive governments in Colombia since the 1960s, postponed their scheduled peace talks with the Colombian government in Oslo, Norway to October 15. The Oslo talks will be followed by successive rounds of negotiations in Havana, Cuba, before (supposedly) wrapping up in Colombia next year.
  
  The key issues on the agenda for the talks include: rural development, political participation, the end of armed conflict, drug trafficking, victims of violence, and implementation and verification. Both sides had signaled their openness to peace talks during recent months. President Juan Manuel Santos’ decision to enter into talks with the FARC represents a departure from his predecessor’s policy on the FARC, which more narrowly emphasized military means.
  
  A previous attempt at coming to a negotiated solution in the late 1990s resulted in FARC regrouping and rearming as a result of the reprieve it was afforded by the talks. This is a mistake the Santos government is eager to avoid, emphasizing that there will be no cease fire and that a comprehensive military presence will remain in all parts of Colombia as peace talks are taking place. Indeed, it was President Santos in his former role as defense minister under President Uribe who led a tough, successful military campaign against the rebels, which was instrumental in weakening the FARC.

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• September 10 – 28: Human Rights Council, 21st Session, Geneva, Switzerland
  During this 21st session of the Human Rights Council Syria will once again dominate the Council’s agenda as a key priority. At this session the commission of inquiry lead by Paulo Sergio Pinheiro and Karen AbuZayd will report on their findings over the last six months. This will be the final Human Rights Council session with the current membership. Elections are set to take place on November 12th at the UN General Assembly to elect new members to a three year term. Most groups have a clean slate except for WEOG where Germany, Sweden, Ireland, the United States, and Greece are competing for three slots.
• September 11-12: Commemorative Session and 4th Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Astana, Kazakhstan
  The commemorative session will celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), which was founded on the initiative of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev in 1992. CICA has 24 members, covering approximately three-quarters of the population and territory of Asia. Earlier this year, President Nazarbayev has called for a strengthening of the conference, transforming it into an international organization. These issues, including the question of succession in chairmanship, will certainly be discussed in Astana.
• September 17: Security Council meeting on Peace and Security in Africa (Sahel), New York 
  Council Members will discuss a proposed integrated strategy for security, governance, development, human rights, and humanitarian issues in the Sahel region. Council members had requested the Secretary-General to develop such a strategy in Security Council resolution 2056 on 5 July 2012. 

  The integrated strategy will need to consider the spillover risks of the Malian crisis in the region, and how to harmonize the seemingly diverse positions of the Malian authorities, core countries such as Algeria, Mauritania, and Niger, as well as the Economic Community of West African States. The leaders of the regional bloc are still considering a military intervention to ensure the effective return to constitutional order in Mali and to eradicate the terrorist threat in the northern part of the country.

• September 24: General Assembly High-level Meeting on the Rule of Law, New York
  In line with General Assembly Resolution A/RES/66/102 of January 2012, there will be a high-level meeting debating the “rule of law at national and international levels.” Beyond member states delegations, expected speakers include the Secretary-General and senior representatives of relevant UN bodies as well as some NGO representative s from the rule of law field. 

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• August 2: Expiration of Security Council Deadline for Sudan and South Sudan
  Besides calling for a cessation of hostilities and resumption of negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan, UN Security Council Resolution 2046 (2012) specifically tasked the two parties to reach agreement on the question of oil revenues, citizenship arrangements (in particular for nationals of one country that are resident in the other), the status of disputed borders and their demarcation, and, importantly, the final status of the Abyei area. Operative paragraph 5 of the resolution set out a three-month deadline for an agreement to be reached (which expires on August 2) and operative paragraph 6 of the resolution threatens sanctions should an agreement not have been reached by the deadline.
  
  With no agreement in sight and the August 2 deadline coming up fast, some kind of punitive action by the Security Council–if not immediate–is possible. The US delegation to the United Nations in New York emphasized the possibility of sanctions in a recent statement, pointing out that “it wishes to reiterate the UN Security Council’s decision in the event that any or all of the parties have not complied with the decisions set forth in this resolution to take appropriate additional measures under Article 41 of the Charter as necessary.”
  
  Former South African president Thabo Mbeki, who leads an AU mediation effort, is expected to brief the Council in August and the question of sanctions might be discussed by Council members during that meeting.
• August 20: End of Transitional Period in Somalia
  August 20 is the deadline for the implementation of the roadmap which Somalia agreed to at a National Reconciliation Conference in Mogadishu in September 2011. Successfully implementing the roadmap would conclude the political transition period which began in 2004 and is supposed to mark a new beginning after over 20 years of no regular government in Somalia. The UN Security Council has emphasized that the Somali transition is going through a “decisive phase” and that the Somali transition must be completed by the August 20 date.
  
  Key steps in reaching this goal include drafting and adopting a new constitution, electing a new parliament as well as a new president. On August 1 the Somali National Constituent Assembly (NCA), which had been convening meetings since July 25, took the essential first step and adopted a new provisional constitution paving the way for the completion of the transition in August. The 825 members of the constituent assembly were selected by a group of 135 tribal elders.
  
  Adoption of the constitution is supposed to be followed by the election of 275 members of parliament by the same group of 135 elders that nominated the members of the constituent assembly. The new MPs are then expected to select a speaker by August 4 and elect the new President by August 20. However, adopting a new provisional constitution was only the first step. It is not clear what will happen should no new government be appointed come August 20.
• August 20: UN Syria Mission Expires After Extension
  On August 20 the 30 day extension of the United Nations Support Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) expires. The UNSC resolution passed on July 20 mandating the prolongation of the Mission, uses specific and unequivocal language to refer to the possibility of further prolonging the mandate, which reflects the resolve of the US, UK and France to dissolve UNSMIS unless it is able to carry out its mandate. It talks about a “final period of 30 days” and sets out specific conditions for the renewal of the mandate, in particular a cessation of the use of heavy weapons and reduction in the level of violence by all sides. Indeed the number of monitors has already been reduced by half.
  
  However, despite the apparent determination of the P3 to shut the Mission down if the violence in Syria rages on, Russia and China are expected to push for a further renewal of the mandate. Also, the UN Secretariat is reluctant to lose a presence on the ground, whether to remain available to opportunities for mediation or to prepare for the day after the fall of the current regime, so that it does not have to renegotiate its entrance into the country. Agreement on a new mandate seems highly unlikely, so the more pertinent question is whether the Mission could be reconfigured under the current mandate. More importantly, however, the dissolution of the Mission will be interpreted as the failure of the UN and diplomacy in general with regards to Syria.
• Also of Interest:
  • August 31: UNFIL Mandate Expires, Lebanon

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• July 2-27: United Nations Arms Trade Treaty Conference
  This summer, delegates from approximately 150 countries will gather in New York to negotiate a draft Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). The treaty negotiations are not certain to succeed (successful negotiations would result in the adoption of the treaty later this year) and, given the interests of key UN member states that are also major weapons exporters, loopholes and exceptions may enter the final text.

  The main goal of the ATT is to put into place global standards to decrease the likelihood that weapons enter the illicit market. To achieve this, before approving an arms transfer, states would have to consider impact criteria concerning the potential use of the weapons, as well as the question of who the potential users might be. The ATT may also contain provisions regulating the $4 billion annual trade in ammunition.

  The Economist reported that many respectable arms manufacturers in Europe and the United States are keen on the ATT, as it would impose a common global standard, superseding a complex set of national rules. Whether a successful outcome can be achieved remains to be seen, the ongoing crisis in Syria risks further complicating this contentious issue.

• July 3: P5+1 Talks on Iran, Istanbul
  With another round of far-reaching sanctions on Iranian crude oil having taken effect, negotiators in the long-standing dispute over Iran’s nuclear program are scheduled to meet in Istanbul for a round of follow-up talks at a technical level. After two so far unsuccessful rounds of negotiations this year, pressure and impatience are increasing. The economic cost of the escalating sanctions regime is hurting Iran, and with Iran remaining intransigent on its nuclear program, the risk of military confrontation is also rising.

  The key demands on Iran are for it to halt production of 20 percent enriched uranium; to swap the existing 20 percent uranium stockpiles for nuclear fuel that can only be used for peaceful purposes (e.g. the Tehran Research Reactor); and to close the underground facility at Fordo. In return, the P5+1 are offering to not impose more sanctions and grant access to spare parts for airplanes. Iran, however, demands that its right to enrich uranium be recognized, that it can keep all of its nuclear facilities, and that sanctions are removed. Overcoming the gulf between the negotiating parties does not seem likely in the short-term.

• July 6: Friends of Syria Meeting, Paris
  Following the meeting of the Action Group on Syria in Geneva over the weekend, where a much-criticized agreement on a transition government for Syria was struck, major stakeholders will be hosted by the French government in Paris on July 6 for the third “Friends of Syria” meeting. The group of 70 states, which does not include Russia and China, will gather in Paris to support the Syrian transition process and seek to get broader endorsement of the agreement struck in Geneva.

  Meanwhile, the mandate of the UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) ends on July 20, and, given the lack of progress on the ground, it is expected that the current observer mission composed of 300 military observers–who suspended their activities and patrols on June 16 because of escalating violence in the country–may be downsized to a small political mission/office, and that its military leadership by General Mood of Norway may be transferred to a senior civilian person.

• July 8: Conference on Afghanistan in Tokyo
  The governments of Japan and of Afghanistan will cohost a major international conference to discuss the future of Afghanistan after 2014 when the International Security Assistance (ISAF) will transfer security authority to the government of Afghanistan. The two main themes are sustainable development of Afghanistan as well as the post-2014 partnership of the international community with Afghanistan, i.e., once NATO’s mission draws down. Key discussion points will be what kind of mutual commitments the international community and the government of Afghanistan will make in terms of a sustainable development strategy, aid coordination, and improvements on governance of the Afghan government. Furthermore, regional economic cooperation and possible follow-up mechanisms will be on the agenda.
• July 9-16: African Union Summit, Addis Ababa
  Following the controversy surrounding Malawi’s President Joyce Banda’s announcement to deny Sudanese President Omar al Bashir entry to Malawi due to the arrest warrant against him by the ICC, the AU decided to move the summit back to Addis Ababa instead of Lilongwe. During the summit the issue of the AU’s leadership will be at the forefront once more with both candidates—incumbent Jean Ping and South Africa’s Nkozasana Zuma—running again after failing to secure the election earlier this year in March.
• In July: Briefing by SRSG Albert Koenders on the UN Operation in Cote D’Ivoire (UNOCI)
  A little over a year after the end of the post-electoral crisis Cote d’Ivoire, SRSG Albert Koenders will brief the Council this month on the UN Operation in Cote D’Ivoire (UNOCI). While a downsizing of the UN mission was long expected following the holding of legislative elections in December 2011 with limited violent incidents, the death of seven UN peacekeepers from Niger on June 8 in an attack in western Cote d’Ivoire near the border with Liberia, and the general insecurity in that part of the country, is likely to plead in favor of a renewal of the mandate at current troop and police levels. Also, while President Ouattara’s economic governance reforms have been praised, experts continue to express concerns over slow progress in areas of political reconciliation, security sector reform, and justice.

Elections

• July 1: Presidential Election, Mexico
  Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) was elected president of Mexico, winning by 5.4% over rival Lopez Obrador, bringing a change of government after twelve years of consecutive rule by the National Action Party (PAN) party. The PRI party is known for having ruled Mexico as a virtual one-party state for 71 years until July 2000, as well as a reputation for old style “boss” politics.
  
  Peña Nieto aims to implement economic reforms, which will create jobs and increase wages, and open the state-owned oil company Pemex to private investment. Peña Nieto has also promised to refocus the drug war towards combating violence afflicting Mexicans, rather than using the militarized approach seen under PAN. It is projected that the PRI will not win a majority in Congress, which may force it to seek alliances with other parties to pursue its reform agenda.

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

Security

• June 1-3: Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore
  The 11th IISS Asia Security Summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue, opens in Singapore on June 1. The inter-governmental security forum is opened by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, President of the Republic of Indonesia, with a keynote address on “An Architecture for Durable Peace in the Asia-Pacific.” The United States is sending three top defense officials to the Dialogue, including Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, who will give a major speech on the so-called "US pivot to Asia" on the morning of Saturday, June 2. Analysts say that the move is another step in Washington's quiet campaign to strengthen security ties with Southeast Asia. Other speakers will include AK Antony, the Indian Defense Minister; Jean-Yves Drian, the recently appointed Defense Minister of France; and Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore's Minister for Defense.
• June 13: US-India Strategic Dialogue, Washington, DC
  In line with the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia, the US and India will hold the 3rd bilateral meeting under the framework of the Strategic Dialogue on June 13 in Washington, DC. Issues on the agenda to watch with regional and global significance are 1) the two countries’ actions to manage their interests in the Asia-Pacific region, and positioning vis-à-vis China in particular; 2) discussions on the Iran nuclear file since, while India agrees in principle to the UN sanctions regime against Iran, its economy is dependent on Iranian oil; 3) cooperation on Afghanistan; 4) cooperation on counterterrorism and bilaterally, issues of US immigration policy and Indian policy in the civil nuclear energy sector.
• June 20: Meeting of UN Peacekeeping Force Commanders, New York
  UN peacekeeping force commanders will converge to New York for their annual meeting with the UN Security Council. A few will be invited to share their experiences with the Council’s members. Last year’s discussion in July featured presentations by force commanders of peace operations in Darfur (UNAMID), in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO), in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and in Liberia (UNMIL). This year, the briefing could include presentations by in force commanders in Sudan’s Abyei region (UNISFA) and in South Sudan (UNMISS).
• June 27: Renewal of Mandate of the UN Mission in the DRC
  This month, the UN Security Council will again consider the renewal of the mandate of MONUSCO, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). MONUSCO was born in June 2010 as a result of President Kabila publicly calling at the end of 2009 for UN peacekeepers to start withdrawing, and the Security Council resisting this call based on the continuous need for protecting civilians in eastern DRC. An agreement was eventually reached to keep the UN mission in Congo under a completely reworked “stabilization” mandate. The protection of civilians is likely to remain the core of MONUSCO’s mandate. In April, France organized a Security Council Arria-formula meeting on Security Sector Reform (SSR) in the DRC. A comprehensive reform of the security sector would be critical for Congolese institutions effectively taking over MONUSCO’s security role. However, there is no indication of the necessary political will in Kinshasa for undertaking such an effort.

Elections

• June 10 and June 17: First and Second Round of National Assembly Elections in France
  France, which held a presidential election last month, returns to the polls to choose members of the lower house of the French legislature, the National Assembly. The legislative elections in France are often described as the "third round" of the presidential election. The Socialist Party is seeking to confirm the result of the presidential election. By contrast, the Union for a Popular Movement, on the right, has asked the French citizens to vote for “a power balance.” The latest opinion polls see the Socialists ahead by a couple of points. French expatriates will elect their own MPs for the first time.

On a visit to Egypt shortly after the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza strip in the summer of 2005, I visited the Cairo bureau of the Spanish news agency EFE. Comparing news coverage between Cairo and Jerusalem, one of my colleagues there expressed wonder at the amount of historical events taking place in Palestine and Israel, and the amount of articles one could publish on the conflict. I mentioned that in Egypt, with some eighty million inhabitants—about ten times more than those living in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel—the potential for finding stories should be huge, to which he retorted that there was very little that Egyptians did that was actually considered newsworthy; the old “nothing happens here” rant of a frustrated journalist.

To say that there are no news stories in Cairo could seem either totally blind or extremely cynical. Cairo is a sleepless city—probably more so than New York. The whole theater of life is there on the streets at all hours: the chances are that if you walk around a bit you will bump into a wedding party or stumble into a wake. You will, without a doubt, see people praying, masses of them. What in the journalist trade is known as “human stories” and “local color” abound. And Egyptians are usually very gregarious, so it is easy to collect quotes for a story.

However, in a way my former colleague was right. Hard news is the staple of an agency, and Egypt didn’t produce as many of those, at least in comparison with Palestinians and Israelis. It was actually quantifiable; the amount of wires being published from Jerusalem outnumbered those from Cairo about Egypt. To be fair, this has also much to do with the importance that a media outlet attaches to a particular country, which in turn is related to the geopolitical weight given to that country, among other factors.

But what my friend was hinting at was that Egyptians could do little that had political repercussions, and that therefore would be considered newsworthy. And that was because they lived under an authoritarian regime that denied them political agency.